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As the flu season nears, an international team of researchers is employing computers to prepare for a possible pandemic influenza, a sort of flu that could infect millions of individuals worldwide.

The function is component of an ongoing effort known as the Models of Infectious Illness Agent Study (MIDAS) supported by the National Institute of Common Medical Sciences, a component of the National Institutes of Well being.

Since November 2004, the researchers have been creating pc models that simulate the potential spread of pandemic flu. Many health officials speculate that the next pandemic could emerge if the avian flu presently circulating amongst wild birds and poultry becomes very easily transmissible among men and women.

By making use of pc models, the MIDAS scientists can see how distinct elements, like the contagiousness of the flu virus, can alter how swiftly the virus might spread between folks in rural and urban regions. They also can introduce intervention methods to study how measures including vaccination, quarantine, school closures, and travel restrictions potentially quit or slow that spread.

To date, the researchers have modeled pandemic flu outbreaks in Southeast Asia, the United States, and Fantastic Britain. Whilst the details of every model vary, the common conclusions are similar: Implementing various public well being measures soon after the initial cases seem can substantially lessen the impact.

In response to a request from the White Residence National Security Council, the MIDAS researchers are at present evaluating the effectiveness of community containment, a method in which a local region implements measures to decrease the transmission of influenza inside that community. These measures could incorporate closing schools, requiring sick individuals and their household members to remain property, telecommuting and videoconferencing, limiting public gatherings, and distributing antiviral drugs to treat infection. The researchers plan to publish the outcomes inside the coming months.

For far more details about MIDAS and to view MIDAS simulations, check out http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Initiatives/MIDAS/. A reality sheet is obtainable at http://www.nigms.nih.gov/Initiatives/MIDAS/Background/Factsheet.htm.

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